Jan. 17--TAMPA -- Forget the balmy December and the gentle touch of cold this past week and get ready for a long, hard winter.
Turbulent weather is headed this way, with forecasters predicting waves of rain and severe storms over the next three months that could make this winter the most destructive in more than a half century.
The reason: El Niño, which already is being blamed for the tornado Jan. 9 in Southwest Florida that damaged 200 homes and caused more than $6 million in damage. It is a glimpse of what's to come, weather watchers say.
"When this El Niño finally ends in the spring or the summer, it could be one of the strongest in history," said Rick Davis, emergency response meteorologist with the National Weather Service in Ruskin.
The most destructive -- and deadliest -- El Niño winter occurred in 1997 and '98.
"That is the standard-bearer for the strongest on record," Davis said. "It's certainly among the top three in history as far as El Niño strength goes."
Over that winter, storms strafed Florida with heavier-than-normal rains and widespread flooding. In Tampa that winter, 36 inches of rain fell.
What's remembered most is the string of tornadoes that hop-scotched across the central spine of the state, killing 42 people, injuring 259 and causing $100 million in damage near Kissimmee.
In 2007, the most recent strong El Niño event, 21 people were killed when tornadoes swept through Lady Lake.
El Niño is a phenomenon in the Pacific Ocean in which warm water near the equator results in atmospheric conditions that affect winter weather patterns over the entire United States.
Researchers don't have a firm grasp on what causes the warm swath of water in the Pacific, which occurs usually every six or seven years. The main impact is that it shifts to the south all the winter storms that typically sweep across the middle and northern parts of the country.
Floridians should be prepared, Davis said.
"We try to let people know that they need to have a severe weather plan in place and to expect cold fronts every three to six days," he said. "And with every system, there is the possibility of strong severe weather."
The National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration issues weather radios that sound alarms as soon as the National Weather Service detects turbulent weather in certain areas, he said. And apps for smartphones are available to warn people if severe weather pops up.
Technology at the National Weather Service has been upgraded over the years, and meteorologists can spot trouble and put the word out almost immediately, he said.
"Radar technology has improved," he said. "We have dual-pole radar that can help us look at storm structures more in detail to see if there is rotation there, large hail, and generally how strong a storm is."
The tornado that swept through parts of Cape Coral last weekend was El Niño's first shot at the Sunshine State, Davis said.
No one was seriously injured along the tornado's 3-mile-long path. Meteorologists told the Fort Myers News-Press that the tornado, which had 132 mph winds, was the strongest in Southwest Florida since 1953.
"We've been in an El Niño for quite some time," Davis said. "It's a strong one and will last through the spring into the early summer.
"What that means for the state of Florida is increased rainfall and near- to below-normal temperatures," he said. "That's starting now. Temperatures have cooled down, and regular downpours are expected to start soon."
Tampa is no stranger to torrential rain. Flooded streets during and after thunderstorms are a way of life here. Unusually heavy rains this past fall -- 11 consecutive days that captured national attention -- gave the city a glimpse into the next few months.
"Godzilla El Niño," said Brad Baird, director of Tampa's public works and utility services, who oversees the city's sometimes-inadequate stormwater drainage system.
Baird was working with the city over the winter of 1997-98 when 36 inches of rain caused 350 wastewater system cave-ins. That's water that seeps into cracks in the crowns of the underground system, carrying with it sand and causing depressions and, ultimately, holes along the city's streets.
"We broke that record easily over the fall," he said. "We had 600 cave-ins, and we're faced with similar consequences now that we faced then."
No big changes were implemented by the city after the fall rains, so heavy and constant precipitation this winter likely will produce the same results: overworked wastewater systems and flooded streets.
"Florida is low, flat and has a lot of rain," he said. "We'll have to respond as we always do. We're on call 24 hours a day, seven days a week."
Even without tornadoes, heavy consistent rains are a given this winter, said Steve Bowen, associate director and meteorologist with Aon, a risk management and insurance brokerage based in Chicago. He urged people to get prepared.
"We're currently in the strongest El Niño on record, since data started being kept back in the 1950s," he said.
"For Florida, this means a lot more rain, heavy rain. There is certainly an increased risk of flooding that goes along with the increased level of thunderstorms."
He said businesses, particularly those in flood zones around Tampa Bay, should make sure their insurance policies are up to date. Prolonged flooding can mean days, maybe weeks where businesses could be shut down.
Heavy rains are a certainty, but could the Tampa region be touched by tornadoes? In the winter of 1997-98, the tornadoes happened inland, but they could just as well have happened along the coast, Bowen said, pointing to the Cape Coral tornado.
"That was not particularly far inland," he said. "It's tough to say if certain parts of the state will have wind damage. Overall, during a strong El Niño, you tend to see a spike in damaging winds.
"And we're talking about a very strong El Niño here."
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